THE LAG
Decades, on average
Across 15 technologies and 166 countries, countries adopted technologies 45 years after their invention on average, with big differences between them.
See the numbersStart
WHAT THE LONG-RUN DATA SHOWS
Invented is not
the same as everywhere.
Most inventions arrive slowly, then all at once.
An invention starts with a few early users. Economists who tracked technologies across countries and two centuries found the wait for everyone else used to be long, and has been getting shorter.
45 YEARSaverage adoption lag
Compare the speedsKeep in mind
- A few early users
- A steep middle
- A long tail
- The shape of a spreading idea
THE SHORT ANSWER
Slow to start,
faster each time.
Three things the adoption data
keeps showing.
THE OLD WAY
The phone took generations
US household data show landlines went from 10% of homes in 1903 to half of homes only in 1946.
Compare the speeds
THE NEW WAY
Newer things spread faster
The same research found newer technologies were adopted faster than old ones. The microwave went from 10% to half of US homes in four years.
Read a spread curveCOMPARE THE SPEEDS
How long to reach
half of homes?
Pick a technology to see how many years it took to go from 10% of US households to 50%. The bar shows how slow that was compared with the others.
Years counted from the first year at or above 10% to the first year at or above 50% in the data series.
TWO NUMBERS WORTH KNOWING
Long waits,
quick catch-ups.
One figure on the average wait,
one on how fast the internet reached British homes.
45 years
Average years from invention to adoption
Comin and Hobijn studied the spread of 15 technologies in 166 countries over two centuries and found countries adopted technologies 45 years after their invention, on average.
ADOPTION LAG · AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
96%
Households in Great Britain with internet access, 2020
The Office for National Statistics found 96% of households in Great Britain had internet access in early 2020, up from 57% in 2006 when comparable records began.
INTERNET · ONS
Comin and Hobijn's wider dataset, CHAT, covers the adoption of over 100 technologies in more than 150 countries since 1800.
READING A SPREAD CURVE
How to read
an adoption chart.
Adoption charts show the share of homes or people using something each year. A few habits make them easier to read.
Step 1
Find the 10% mark
Ten per cent of homes is a common starting point for comparing how fast different inventions spread.
Step 2
Time the middle
The years between 10% and 50% are where the curve is steepest and the speed is easiest to compare.
Step 3
Watch the tail
The last homes can take far longer. US households with a dishwasher took until 1998 to pass half.
Step 4
Look for the fall
Some lines drop as something newer arrives. US landline use peaked and then fell to 41.7% of households by 2018.
WITHIN A LIFETIME
Change you can
watch happen.
Our World in Data points out that in 1903 the first powered flight lasted less than a minute, and just 66 years later people landed on the Moon. Many people saw both within their lifetimes.
Roser's timeline starts with stone tools about 3.4 million years ago and notes it took 2.4 million years for our ancestors to control fire and cook with it. Set against that, decades are remarkably short.
Questions
Questions on the way
How long does it take an invention to catch on?
It varies a lot. A study of 15 technologies in 166 countries found countries adopted technologies 45 years after their invention on average, with substantial variation across technologies and countries.
Are new technologies really spreading faster?
The research says so: newer technologies have been adopted faster than old ones. In US data, the microwave and the mobile phone reached half of households far faster than the landline did.
Why compare the telephone and the microwave?
They show the range. In US data the landline took from 1903 to 1946 to go from 10% to 50% of households, while the microwave did the same between 1982 and 1986.
How many British homes have the internet?
The ONS found 96% of households in Great Britain had internet access in January to February 2020, up from 93% in 2019 and 57% in 2006.
Where does the adoption data come from?
Much of it comes from the work of economists Diego Comin and Bart Hobijn, whose CHAT dataset tracks over 100 technologies in more than 150 countries since 1800. Our World in Data charts the US household series.
Destination
Where the facts come from
- Comin and Hobijn (2010), An Exploration of Technology Diffusion, American Economic Review
- Comin and Hobijn, The CHAT dataset, NBER working paper 15319
- Our World in Data: Share of United States households using specific technologies
- Our World in Data: Technology over the long run (Max Roser, 2023)
- ONS: Internet access, households and individuals, Great Britain, 2020
Updated